Richard A. Clarke
Listening to Iran’s president Ahmadinejad deny the Holocaust or claim 9-11 was a US plot, most people correctly regard him as a dangerous kook and a product of the corrupt political system that runs Iran. In addition to being those things, however, he is also someone who is standing up occasionally to the Supreme Leader of Iran and the shadowy Revolutionary Guard killers who support the Ayatollah and the kleptocracy around him.
All is not well in Tehran. The international economic sanctions imposed because of Iran’s illegal nuclear program are beginning to have some effects. The supporters of the Green Revolution that was suppressed by the secret police are still just below the surface, watching the Arab Spring. The Ayatollah’s only Arab ally nation, Assad’s Syria, is in danger. Other Arab nations, led by the Saudis, are organizing to resist Iran’s expansionist activities in the region. Respect for the Supreme Leader inside Iran is eroding.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
For the Revolutionary Guard it is a worrisome time. They have extended their role well beyond security of the regime to the management of an economic empire of businesses, legal and illegal, in and out of Iran. Political change could cost them their fortunes, or even their lives. Thus, it is not surprising that the Revolutionary Guards might turn to their own special forces branch, the Jerusalem (Quds) Force to come up with a game changer.
What if the Quds Force were able to get the Saudis and the US to attack Iran? If bombs fell on Iran, the Supreme Leader could institute special emergency rules. If the nation were under assault, many Iranians would rally to the flag. But how could the Quds provoke such an attack? Well, they could kill the Saudi King’s personal advisor on national security and do it in the heart of the beast, right in downtown Washington. After a while the Americans would figure out who did it. Tehran could still plausibly deny its role, but the political pressure in Riyadh and Washington would force them to attack. The Americans would not invade and occupy as they did in Iraq. It would be more of a round of bombings and Iranian responses, which would also drive up the price of oil.
Does it still seem like a cheap spy story, still sound so totally implausible?
If this analysis is right, the Quds Force won’t stop just because their first attempt failed.
