The Cost of Saving Lives in Bangladesh

Ben W. Heineman, Jr.

Ben W. Heineman, Jr.

By Ben W. Heineman, Jr.

(This article first appeared on TheAtlantic.com, where Ben Heineman is a frequent contributor)

The horrific death of more than 900 Bangladesh garment workers in the collapse of a building, following the death of 112 garment workers in a Bangladesh factory fire five months ago, has led, of course, to the inevitable calls for reform. The immediate question is how to ensure structural soundness of factories after the multi-storied Rana Plaza facility–making garments for as many as 30 international retailers–broke apart, burning, suffocating and crushing its workforce. But broader issues of worker health and safety for Bangladesh’s 5,000 garment factories have also come to the fore.

But if real reform is to occur on the ground, hard, complex questions must be asked and answered. Most importantly, what is the cost of necessary changes to protect workers and who will pay? Many actors have a role: the Bangladesh government, the factory owners, the garment buyers (including many international brands), consumers across the globe looking for cheap prices and developed world governments which have allowed preferential treatment for Bangladesh imports (using “trade” in lieu of “aid”) without serious review of worker standards.

Unless these fundamental relationships and responsibilities are clarified (perhaps by a multi-stakeholder task force), meaningful change is unlikely to occur given the complex interrelationships that allowed the tragedy to occur in the first place. At the core of the problem are global garment retailers who want the incur the lowest cost–and offer the lowest price–to compete in developed markets but who do not want to be complicit in publicized worker tragedies in developing markets. Similarly, governments in developing countries want to attract garment manufacturers (who sell at lowest cost to international retailers), want to pay lip-service to worker protection, but do not want to send those manufacturers to another low cost country because of costly health and safety regulation.

The backdrop for the catastrophic event at Rana Plaza is growth of the garment industry in Bangladesh. For much global trade, labor costs are only one part of the business equation. But in some spheres, like apparel, textiles and toys, cheap labor still is vital. And, as one of the poorest nations in the world (Bangladesh, a nation of 160 million, ranks 192nd in terms of per capita income), the minimum wage for the about 3.5 million garment workers (80-90 percent women) is about $38 dollars per month (one of lowest in the world). As wages in China have risen, international buyers have shifted attention to Bangladesh where thousands of garment factories now produce between $18-20 billion in goods annually, which constitute about 80 percent of the nation’s export volume and 10 percent of GDP.

The threshold question is whether the government of Bangladesh has established adequate laws and regulations relating to worker health, safety and well-being which provide appropriate nominal protection when compared to norms in other nations. These rules include building codes, fire prevention, health and safety conditions inside factories, other labor standards relating to wages and child labor, the right to organize, environmental protection against factory discharges and funds for workers injured, disabled or killed on the job. A daunting list! The obvious related question is whether Bangladesh has the means to enforce such laws: the political will, adequate numbers of trained inspectors, adequate numbers of enforcement officials, a regulatory and legal system capable of imposing sanctions when warranted and a remedy regime which imposes proper individual or company fines or penalties both to punish and deter individuals and companies as well as the capacity to order meaningful remedial action.

Bangladesh is poor and corrupt (rank: 144 if 176 on Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index). It has had a strategy of encouraging the low cost garment industry by not having a serious regulatory regime protecting labor. And news reports state that its politicians have been involved in owning or supporting garment makers with improper payments to ensure laws do not exist or are not enforced. Although reformers and the government itself have called for a changes in government, there has been no serious analysis since the fire and building collapse of the “regulatory deficit” (although the government has promised to work with the International Labor Organization and workers to review plant safety by year end). How much would it cost to pass laws and develop meaningful enforcement capacity; how would poverty ridden Bangladesh pay for it; and, given corruption and weak rule of law, is meaningful action at scale in this sphere possible? Inadequate government is a huge obstacle to change, made even more difficult in a nation with highly contentious politics.

A second key question is whether the owners of the factories which make garments have the resources and the will to pay for the “compliance deficit.” the cost required to bring factories and working conditions from their current state “up to code,” assuming good laws and meaningful enforcement. Western consultants estimate that only about one percent of Bangladesh garment factories have good standards. Again, there is no detailed analysis of this question which has many dimensions. What would be cost, for example, of making the existing 4500 factories structurally sound (one labor organization has estimated $3 billion but without details). Importantly, what are the economics of the garment makers? Do they have any profit margins or net cash flow which could fund improvements. Can they raise prices to international buyers to get such funds without losing customers to competing countries? But, even if some manufacturers raise prices to fund reform, many others may try to keep their prices low to keep or increase business and to free-ride on the changed reputation of others, in the absence of effective government.

A third, related question is whether these garment factory owners are willing to allow workers to organize in unions or associations in order to have a voice in health and safety conditions (again assuming decent labor laws and decent enforcement). Following the building collapse stories emerged at how anti-union both the government and the owners have been. Yet worker “voice” is necessary to speak to government, owners, buyers, NGOs and the media. But, although right and necessary, such voice–overcoming the “organizing deficit”– has a cost too which must be understood if it is realistically going to grow, importantly with the support of the international retailers.

A fourth key issue relating to “who pays” and “who is accountable” questions is, of course, the role of those global retailers who buy the low-cost Bangladesh garments, the “buyer deficit.” Approximately 60 percent of the clothing made there goes to United States or the European Union. Many international brands buy from Bangladesh suppliers, including Wal-Mart, Benneton, Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger, Children’s Place, Primark and Joe Fresh.

Having been criticized sharply for poor labor practices in suppliers, most well-known global companies (or their brands) have established labor standards for the companies from whom they buy product, either individually or through industry associations. They audit compliance with those standards themselves or through independent organizations. But, there are several problems. The standards may depend on local law which is inadequate or does not cover key technical issues (like building codes). When there are violations, the buyers may simply cut off the suppliers rather than helping them improve their practices, leaving workers no better off. Standards therefore my lead to buyers with visible brands to find select suppliers who are “up to code” but leaving many, many more who impose sub-standard conditions on workers. And sometimes, global buyers simply leave the country when they conclude that conditions are so bad, and compliance with standards so hard to ascertain, that they don’t want to take the risk of having their brand associated with product from that country. In the case of Bangladesh, both Walt Disney and Levi-Straus, two iconic U.S. brands, have pulled out of the country altogether.

The question then becomes whether international buyers are willing to go beyond imposition of standards and supplier cut offs and to pay, in some form, for the undetermined costs of the government “regulatory,” supplier “compliance” and worker “organizing” deficits. But, this aspect of the “buyer deficit” has no easy answer. Many have called for international buyers not to leave Bangladesh but invest in it because, deeply flawed though it may be, the garment industry has been a source of growth for the country and a way station, however dangerous and exploitive, out of even worse rural poverty for many women. But such calls have often been short on details about funding and implementation.Given corruption in the government and untrustworthiness of manufacturers, creating funds through higher taxes on buyers or higher prices from garment makers are unlikely and ineffective sources of finance for real reform.

Buyers could, perhaps, work directly with a few trusted manufacturers to use their own funds to help bring a small percentage of factories up to decent standards. But, this would leave hundreds, if not thousands, of facilities in sub-standard and hazardous condition. A few companies have committed funds for building fire safety (Gap pledged $22 million) or for training plant managers (Wal-Mart offered $1.8 million) or for compensating victims. Other retailers have indicated a willingness to finance some safety efforts (amounts undetermined) if other buyers will join them in such concerted action. (See, for example, the proposal of the Clean Clothes Campaign, a worker’s right NGO).

Perhaps an international non-profit organization could be created to receive and disburse such funds from international retailers, but target amounts, criteria for potential recipients and implementation planning are far from being defined. And, even in the immediate wake of catastrophe, many companies have not even made vague commitments to spend funds on actual improvements rather than just set and audit standards and reject suppliers who don’t meet them, although buyers are meeting to discuss what can be done. Ensuring that such private retailers funds are used for their intended purpose by manufacturers is yet another issue. Thus, actually implementing major substantive change–not just articulating good plans–by a concerted, critical mass of outside buyers, rather than by the government, is a significant challenge in a weak state like Bangladesh.

Then there is the “customer deficit.” If international retailers were willing (and able) to finance changes in Bangladesh factories in a meaningful, could they pass those costs on to bargain hunting customers in the U.S. and the EU through higher prices — or would they just reduce their profits by the amounts dedicated to real change. Under competition laws, companies cannot, obviously, agree on such a price rise so there will be disparate responses from retailers in amounts spent on reform and pricing actions, leading again to lack of coordination and free-riding. But, if price is not the only consideration, consumers can, as with other products like coffee and fruit, demand that retailers disclose supplier standards and auditing. Can a robust consumer movement arise among those shopping for discount clothing in response to the Bangladesh building collapse?

Finally, there is the question of what the EU and U.S. can do to leverage trade preferences for Bangladesh imports (given in the name of stimulating economic growth in one of the poorest nations) for better health and safety standards in the factories producing those imported products. To address this “trade law” deficit, and all the other “deficits” described above, Sander Levin and George Miller, Democrats on the House Ways and Means Committee, have asked the Obama Administration to review US trade preferences (which cover only part of apparel imports) and to join with the EU and Bangladesh in convening a task force of governmental, business and NGO representatives to develop a concrete plan of action.

Such a task force must address the fundamental issues raised here. What are the standards? What is the cost? Who is accountable? I am not advocating a comprehensive solution which could take years to devise and implement. Yet, priority, near-terms actions can flow more sensibly from the work of a special task force addressing the fundamental, longer term financial and responsibility issues affecting the various interconnected actors.

Many commentators have drawn an analogy between the collapse of the Rana Plaza in the Bangladesh Capital of Dhaka and the 1911 Triangle Shirtwaist factory fire in New York which claimed 146 lives. The 1911 event led to formation of a strong union (The Ladies Garment Workers) and much-needed reforms. But the Rana Plaza catastrophe represents a more complicated set of fractured global relationships, responsibilities and financial capabilities. Without greater clarity from an authoritative international body about these relationships, responsibilities and ability to pay, needed reform — which goes beyond mere rhetoric urging change — may be buried just as tragically as the more than 900 people under the Bangladesh rubble. And a double tragedy would be if reform efforts in Bangladesh drive garment makers and international retailers to other low cost countries which have not been in the spotlight–e.g. Pakistan, Myanmar, Vietnam, Cambodia–but where worker health and safety problems are much the same.

Ben Heineman is a senior fellow in the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Kennedy School and a senior fellow at Harvard Law School’s Programs on Corporate Governance  and the Legal Profession. He was GE’s Senior Vice President for Law and Public Affairs.

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America’s Undiminished Power of Attraction

Richard N. Rosecrance

Richard N. Rosecrance

By Richard N. Rosecrance

President Obama has nominated two representatives who will lead US trade talks over the next two years: Michael Froman, former White House economic aide as U.S. Trade Representative and Penny Pritzker, Hyatt scion and Chicago fund raiser as the new Secretary of Commerce. Together their appointments signal America’s new focus on increasing international trade as a stimulus to the domestic economy. The two representatives will deal with proposals for a customs accord with the European Union (TAFTA and an investment agreement) and a commercial union with Pacific nations in the Trans-Pacific Partnership. But the new stress on trade represents a more profound reorientation than just a new way of seeking economic development. It underscores America’s undiminished power of attraction to other countries in both international politics and economics.

Many have speculated that the (relative) decline in US GDP compared with rising Asia (only partly offset by the recent inclusion of new investment indicators in GDP measures) could inaugurate a new era of global uncertainty and instability. These critics have correctly pointed out that rising countries frequently get into conflict with established hegemonic powers as Germany did with Britain in 1914 and as Russia did for a considerable time with America after 1950. Harvard’s Joseph Nye and others have countered that America’s “soft power” partly mitigates this decline. A country’s “soft power” offered a global example of effectiveness in its society, democracy, or culture which other countries might be tempted to emulate.

More important, however, is the political and economic attraction which flows from America’s soft power as well as from trade arrangements the US is consummating with Europe and Asia.

In the past great theorists like Machiavelli and later Hobbes never understood that the balance of power could be transformed internationally. They did not realize that world was not condemned to endless balance of power rivalries. Every now and then “powers of attraction” would create a stunning overbalance of force in which joining parties would emerge satisfied. In Europe it did so for a half century after 1815. The Cold War came to an end because the United States had created an overbalance of power that made Soviet resistance counterproductive and ultimately attracted Moscow to begin (the still unfinished) process of political and economic reform.

Today, the United States stands athwart Asian and European worlds. It offers trade and investment to both continents. The attractive force of America’s open invitation to join a greater economic unit can change the game of world politics. If TAFTA and an investment agreement are negotiated, the US and the EU would then represent an economic unit of $32 trillion, about half of world GDP (of $61 trillion). If TPP emerges, it would combine an additional $2.3 trillion; if Japan, Canada and Mexico join, as seems likely, another $7.9 would be inputted into the growing commercial enterprise, rendering a total of over $40 trillion.

Those who center attention on the US-China rivalry and its potential consequences do not fully observe the attractive force of customs unions in this process. China’s $8 trillion GDP could not stand against or balance such a combination of economic strength. An overbalance of power would be concerted that China would then have to join. Where else could it sell its goods? Where else could it get the revenue to continue to import the largest share of energy on the planet? The balance of power would then yield to overbalance, and Beijing, perhaps ineluctably would be drawn into a more cooperative trading unit in world politics. China may of course have other short term ideas, but in the longer run, its own economic development will depend upon sturdy economic connections with the West, Japan, and free Asia. An overbalance will then begin to assert itself.

Richard Rosecrance is an adjunct professor at the Harvard Kennedy School, where he is director of the Belfer Center’s Project on U.S.-China Relations. He is author of the forthcoming book Resurgence of the West (Yale University Press, 2013).

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Name the Trade Rep, Mr. President

Ben W. Heineman, Jr.

Ben W. Heineman, Jr.

By Ben W. Heineman, Jr.

(This article first appeared in Harvard Business Review Blog Network, where Ben Heineman is a frequent contributor)

In President Obama’s second term, the United States has an ambitious and challenging Atlantic and Pacific trade agenda which could significantly alter the architecture of the global economy.

But the President has yet to designate someone to fill the crucial Cabinet level position of U.S. Trade Representative (USTR). The stakes, both internationally and domestically, are extremely high and Mr. Obama should immediately send to the Senate for confirmation a nominee of prominence and stature.

Doing so would show that he places the highest priority on both the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations — started in 2011 and slated to end this year — and the newly launched free trade negotiations between the US and EU which are scheduled (optimistically) to be completed before the 2016 election. He should simultaneously push hard for Congressional renewal of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) which gives the Executive the power to negotiate trade agreements subject only to a prompt up or down vote in the House and Senate with no amendments. This authority expired in 2007.

The Trans-Pacific talks have involved 11 developed and developing Pacific Rim nations with a combined GDP of $40 trillion,and which recently got a jolt of energy and complexity when Japan (GDP=$6 trillion) joined the negotiations. The US-EU talks involve the two largest economies in the world (EU $17 trillion, US $15 trillion, China $12 trillion) which account for about one-third of world trade annually ($2 billion per day).

Both negotiations aim to reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers in goods, services, investment and procurement. Importantly, this means harmonization or mutual recognition of national regulatory regimes, which can lead to global standards and greater ease and efficiency in cross border economic activity. The US-EU talks, for example, can not only have economic benefits (reduced costs/higher GDP in both regions without stimulus spending) but also geopolitical ones (refreshing the transatlantic alliance and rule of law market economies). The TPP hopes for similar effects.

Both negotiations are driven by a desire to spark a sluggish world economy and by an unstated but clear desire to provide powerful counterweights to China. This China strategy can occur through greater growth in developed and developing democracies; through regulatory and product standards which become world norms and to which China may have to conform; and through new rules, as yet undefined, to address the trade distortions of Chinese “state capitalism.” This last point, explicitly mentioned in the terms of reference of both negotiations, is aimed at the licit and illicit subsidies, preferences and advantages which China’s government provides to its national “corporate” champions, especially those owned by the state.

But, while the broad goals and general impact of both the Atlantic and Pacific trade talks are thematically compelling, the actual negotiations are exceedingly detailed and difficult. In each nation or region, special interests have to give up sacred cows, regulatory agencies have to modify their behavior and certain segments of the economy will suffer from increased competition while others will prosper. A Trade Representative of real stature and skill is needed to bring a broad national and global (not parochial) perspective to the talks, and to negotiate, compromise and close the deal with international counterparties on a package of contentious issues. Such a trade leader must simultaneously keep a fractured Congress informed and supportive while getting Trade Promotion Authority enacted and also carrying out the negotiating goals which Congress writes into the legislation.

Surviving, even thriving, in the domestic and international crossfire on such fractious issues as autos, drugs, aviation, financial services or agriculture requires that the President make these trade negotiations a top priority. This means he needs a strong leader who can remain not only above specialized interest group, regulatory and Congressional interests, but who is also outside the West Wing and can effectively direct the effort and package the issues in internal processes, until the President’s direct public involvement is needed.

Past USTRs were people of remarkable ability who came to the job with strong track records, or who developed a reputation for leadership once appointed, such as: Bob Strauss (Carter), Bill Brock (Reagan), Carla Hills (Bush 41), Mickey Kantor (Clinton), Charlene Barshefsky (Clinton), Bob Zoellick (Bush 43), Rob Portman (Bush 43).

Although top Administration officials, like National Security Advisor Tom Donilon, talk about the strategic importance of the Atlantic and Pacific trade negotiations, unfortunately the President himself has never shown much public interest in trade. Obama announced the US-EU trade negotiations in a single sentence buried deep in the State of the Union address. And he is the only recent president not to immediately propose renewal of Trade Promotion Authority upon assuming office. Instead, we have seen only an administration announcement, in an anodyne and faceless trade agenda paper, that it planned to work with the Congress on new TPA legislation. And thus far, leadership on the US-EU talks has come from the White House staff (per Michael Froman on the National Security and National Economic staffs), and TPP negotiations have been led by an assistant USTR, with neither the talks nor the point person receiving much national attention.

There is, in short, genuine doubt about whether President Obama really cares about these critical global initiatives, given all the other priorities with which he must deal. The obvious symbol of Presidential commitment is the United States Trade Representative. That is why it is so odd that no nomination has been announced, with TPA facing a tough fight in Congress; with the Pacific talks made infinitely more complicated by Japan’s entrance; and with the US-EU talks requiring firmer, clearer negotiating plans and some quick victories to develop momentum. Although strong support is needed from the President himself, Mr. Obama needs a potent national figure outside the West Wing who can take fire prior to his personal involvement in negotiations.

Reaching meaningful agreements with real impact in the Atlantic and Pacific trade talks would be a long-shot under the best of circustances. If the President does not make this a key priority which commands his attention, and on which he will spend leadership capital, these talks will not succeed, and may not even happen given the degree of political difficulty here and abroad. The economic costs would be very high for the US and the world.

Obama’s task is clear. Appoint the USTR now, Mr. President.

Ben Heineman is a senior fellow in the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Kennedy School and a senior fellow at Harvard Law School’s Programs on Corporate Governance  and the Legal Profession. He was GE’s Senior Vice President for Law and Public Affairs.

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The Off-Shoring, Out-Sourcing Debate is Out of Date

Ben W. Heineman, Jr.

Ben W. Heineman, Jr.

By Ben W. Heineman, Jr.

(This article first appeared on TheAtlantic.com, where Ben Heineman is a frequent contributor)

Labor markets have for the past quarter century been at the center of the globalization disputes under the “off-shoring and out-sourcing” rubric. How many jobs were lost at home to cheap labor abroad? What were conditions for those overseas workers? But the rapidly changing nature of the global economy has changed much, though not all, of that “off-shoring/out-sourcing” debate. Today, cheap labor is only one of many factors leading global companies to choose where to do business in diverse nations across the world. Major economic changes like the internal growth of emerging markets have scrambled debates about the global economy, posed challenges for international business, stimulated contradictory public policies and confused the general public.

It was often cheap labor in emerging markets that, more than two decades ago, led companies in developed markets to move company jobs away from the home country either to company owned facilities (off-shoring) or to third parties (out-sourcing) in developing markets. The broad idea was that less expensive manufacturing or inexpensive white collar workers would create goods and services in developing nations that would serve world markets. China, especially, would be the global product-manufacturing center; India, via the web, would be the global service provider.

The well known debate ensued between free-trade (more competition, cheaper goods in U.S., growth in developing markets) and fair trade (only wealthy benefit, hollowing out of U.S. middle class, exploitative labor standards overseas). The debate heated up in political years (including 2012), when “outsourcing” became an especially a dirty word. But, in addition to dramatic economic growth in emerging markets, four recent trends have significantly modified this old off-shoring and out-sourcing schematic. Continue reading >

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Cyber assassins

Justin Dargin

Justin Dargin

By Justin Dargin

(This article first appeared in Petroleum Economist)

Computer screens at the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) indicate to anxious personnel that a massive Soviet attack is under way.

Hundreds of bombers, nuclear-tipped inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarines are heading for the US. NORAD prepares to retaliate and readies the US nuclear arsenal for a devastating counterattack. But, at the last moment, humanity is saved, and it is discovered that the supposed Soviet nuclear attack was the result of a hacking gone wildly out of control.

Sounds real? Thankfully, it was not. It was a scene from the 1983 blockbuster WarGames. The movie was released a full decade before the internet became commercialised and a full two decades before it became part of everyday life. While hackers first appeared on the scene in the 1960s, borne out of the high-tech and competitive environment at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), hacking was first introduced to the general public by WarGames. Continue reading >

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Israel’s Missing Naval Strategy

Ehud Eiran

By Ehud Eiran

Former Associate and Research Fellow, International Security Program, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

In a March 19 piece on Foreign Affairs. com, Retired Admiral Yual Zur and I argued for the development of a comprehensive Israeli maritime strategy. Israel not only resides on the shores of the Mediterranean, but also relies on the seas for almost all of its imports, exports and cable communications. In many ways – due its political, economic, and cultural isolation for the Middle-East – Israel had become an island of sorts.

While the Jewish state’s founding father, David Ben Gurion, believed that the seas hold the key for the state’s future, over the years, the role of the sea in the eyes of national planners declined. Israel has no clear strategy regarding the seas and how they might contribute for its future prosperity. It further lacks the institutional depth expected from a nation that is so dependent on the seas. For example, Israel has no coast guard and the number of Israeli civilian sailors declined from some 1500 a few decades ago, to less than 300 today. But recent strategic developments must lead Israel to close its maritime gap.

First, massive gas deposits found in the last few years in Israeli economic waters are going to become a crucial part of its economy. Second, the seas had become a major supply route of arms for Israel’s non-state foes. Third, the growing tensions with Iran should lead Israel to develop platforms that have a longer reach, the navy’s being an obvious choice. Finally, Israel benefits from the rise of new international maritime security regimes, such as the Proliferation Security Initiative, and may need to think more seriously about how it could contribute to them.

The full article is available at Foreign Affairs.

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ASEAN’s Great Power Dilemma

Kei Koga

Kei Koga

By Kei Koga.

(This article first appeared in Asia Times Online)

Since the end of the Cold War, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has engaged the outside world to play an active security role within greater East Asia. In 1994, ASEAN created the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), at which regional powers such as the United States, Japan, and China meet annually to discuss security issues in the region and beyond.

In 1997, ASEAN+3 was created in order to manage regional issues, especially economics. In 2005, the East Asia Summit (EAS) was established by inviting Australia, India and New Zealand in addition to the ASEAN+3 member states. In 2011, the summit’s membership was expanded to the US and Russia.

In 2010, the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting (ADMM) expanded its membership to include all members from EAS to form ADMM Plus. By inviting the region’s great powers, ASEAN had two objectives: (1) to maintain the constant attention of the great powers to ASEAN and (2) to avoid political marginalization from them.

To this end, ASEAN has attempted to maintain its post–Cold War fundamental principle of regional multilateralism: “ASEAN Centrality”. This principle derives from the 10-member grouping’s negative experience in the late 1980s with the establishment of the rival Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum. Continue reading >

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How Obama Can Win a European Free-Trade Deal

Ben W. Heineman, Jr.

Ben W. Heineman, Jr.

By Ben W. Heineman, Jr.

(This article first appeared on TheAtlantic.com, where Ben Heineman is a frequent contributor)

The contrast was striking. In his State of the Union address, President Obama buried the start of a U.S.-E.U. free trade negotiations in a single sentence well down in the text: ” Tonight, I’m announcing that we will launch talks on a comprehensive Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the European Union, because trade that is fair and free across the Atlantic supports millions of good-paying American jobs.”

Yet, remarkably, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and The Financial Times led their editions the second day after the speech with the trade talk stories, and under multi-deck headlines (“Obama Bid for Trade Pact with Europe Stirs Hope: Rise of China May Spur Deal Despite Past Failures–Visions of Lower Prices.“)

In trumpeting the story, the newspapers acknowledged the potential significance of such a deal between the first and second largest economies in the world (E.U. $17 trillion; U.S. $15 trillion; China $12 trillion), reflecting the views of politicians and other leaders on both sides of the Atlantic. In downplaying the announcement, the president was hedging his bets: because of parochial interests in both the U.S. and the E.U., it will be hard to get a meaningful deal done on a host of technocratic issues, and he doesn’t want the trade negotiations to detract politically from the host of other issues he wishes to advance during his second term.

Yet the irony is that the president cannot hedge his bets without effectively undermining, or indeed killing, the talks in their infancy. He must be prepared to put the full weight of the administration, and the full weight of the presidency, behind this project for it to have a decent chance of succeeding. Continue reading >

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North Korea’s third nuclear test: plutonium or highly enriched uranium?

Hui Zhang

Hui Zhang

By Hui Zhang

Senior Research Associate, Project on Managing the Atom, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

On February 12, 2013, North Korea conducted its third nuclear test, and a number of seismic stations around the world detected the event. Before and after the test, there has been much anticipation in the media that we might learn through off-site sampling analysis whether North Korea exploded plutonium bomb like it did in the in 2006 and 2009 tests, or a new device using highly enriched uranium (HEU).

Indeed, many experts have suggested that the test was an HEU explosion. North Korea has only a small supply of plutonium—material that it had stopped producing by 2008—and had more recently demonstrated an operational capability to enrich uranium, which would support a much larger arsenal of weapons given North Korea’s huge deposits of natural uranium. Without a doubt, confirming the type of nuclear weapon it tested is highly desirable. However, the seismic signals are useless in this regard. The question is, then, can the off-site environmental sampling analysis distinguish a plutonium explosion from a HEU explosion? Continue reading >

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What’s the most critical and under-appreciated issue in international security? World peace.

Scott Moore

Scott Moore

By Scott Moore

The very phrase “world peace” has become something of a synonym for naiveté. Yet in recent years, compelling evidence has emerged to suggest that at least one important aspect of world peace, the absence or rarity of inter-state warfare, may in fact be the predictable result of observable, long-term trends. Scholarly work on what might be called the “decline-in-violence” phenomenon emerged following the conclusion of a surprisingly peaceful Cold War, but has lately garnered greater popular attention from journalists and public intellectuals like Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker.

In a world faced with the ever-present risk of terrorist attacks and a looming Iranian nuclear capability, the decline-in-violence proposition is often treated with skepticism. But it’s time for the international security community to think seriously about preparing for a durable world peace instead of the constant threat of world war. Continue reading >

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